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SCOTLAND'S ROAD TO RECOVERY

This month's data from the Office for National Statistics show that despite the incredibly challenging circumstances facing the job market, there is optimistic news. The unemployment rate in Scotland has remained steady at 4.4%, which continues to trend lower than the UK rate of 4.9%.  

  • 120,000 people in Scotland are currently unemployed, this equates to roughly 7% of the 1.67 million unemployed in the UK.
  • The steady rate of unemployment in Scotland is largely due to the ongoing furlough scheme, boosted by the successful vaccine roll-out. 
  • The number of job vacancies advertised in Scotland has increased by 50% from February to March - the highest level since 2019. 
  • Job vacancies have been boosted by the sectors most impacted by the pandemic such as retail and hospitality reopening their doors next week. 

Job Vacancies in Scotland 2021 

Screenshot 2021 04 21 at 10.44.46

Speaking in today’s Herald, s1jobs Commercial Director Gavin Mochan warns that some of these jobs may not be sustainable, “hospitality venues will remain under trading restrictions for an unspecified time to come, with indoor venues initially required to close by 8pm, and outdoor areas to shut by 10pm. Industry representatives have warned such conditions are not viable, with 24,000 jobs at risk.”

With restrictions easing and the vaccination roll-out going strong, there is much to be optimistic about. Yet, as Mochan notes, “the extent of the damage will only be evident in the weeks and months to come as the economy reopens and government support winds down.”

SCOTLAND'S HOUSE MARKET NEGATIVELY IMPACTED

Real Estate Expert says the influx of houses to the market is negatively impacting sales

Although it has taken a significant hit, the property market is still operating as of now, granted it remains in line with current government provisions. As such, the activities required to move house are permitted as well, so long as current safety guidance is followed as set forth by the Scottish government. Listed approved activities include those such as home appraisals, inspections, mortgage applications, viewing (barring open houses), offers, and home moves (including those across country borders).

The question remains, however: is the property market currently suitable for first-time homeowners?

The Head of Residential Property at Thorntons, Ken Thompson, has something to say about this. He believes it remains afloat and has created market conditions beneficial to sellers, but also cautions that first-time buyers are likely to pay inflated prices for quick-turnover properties, resulting in a loss of profit when they decide to sell.

In a recent public statement, Ken remarked: “We’ve witnessed an immediate and sustained mini-property boom since the market reopened in June 2020. There’s been such a pent-up demand fuelling the marketplace that in some areas has meant supply has struggled to meet demand.

“This has led to an increase in prices for all properties from small flats to top-end homes, which in some areas of Scotland, including Edinburgh and the Borders, have been significant. The year on year average price rise to the end of December was 6.8% in Dundee and Angus, 6.5% in Perth and 5.3% in Fife.

“Sales are only restricted by the number of homes coming to market but the demand from buyers has remained undiminished and first-time buyers have played a large part in driving the market.

“Part of this has been, in part, due to the availability of Government Assistance through the Help to Buy ISA scheme. This has now closed to new savers and has been replaced in part by the slightly less attractive Lifetime ISA scheme.

“The First Homes Fund, a shared equity scheme providing cash loans of up to £25,000 to assist in the purchase of a first home, has also proved hugely popular. This scheme was closed to applications in October but has now re-opened for applications to assist with purchases that will complete on or after 1st April 2021.

“Assistance may also still be available to new buyers under the LIFT Open Market Shared Equity Scheme. Funding is limited and is subject to maximum price thresholds that are fixed by reference to the number of rooms in the house being purchased, and the area within which it is being purchased – but it could provide a welcome boost.

“To gather more information on these schemes, and get assistance with applications, prospective buyers should speak to a Mortgage Adviser.”

“Another current incentive is the fact that Land & Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) is not payable where the purchase of a property is at a price of £250,000.00 or less. That currently leads to a saving for buyers of up to £2100.00 but that only applies to purchases that complete on or before 31st March 2021.”

Amidst these major concerns for first-time homeowners, the increasing prices stand at the forefront. These elevated prices could have dire consequences for home buyers as they cause required deposits to climb to unreasonable levels.

Ken later goes on to add: “There was a concern last year when some of the major mortgage lenders pulled their maximum lending back to 85% of the value of the property being purchased. Finding 15% of the value of the property plus the sum necessary to pay a premium overvaluation to secure a property means finding a significant sum.

“Fortunately, most lenders have reversed their policy and will now lend 90% – and in some cases more – plus mortgages are relatively cheap because interest rates are so low. Costs can be fixed by choosing fixed-rate products to protect against rising interest rates in the short to medium term.

“Ultimately, I believe there is never a bad time to get onto the property ladder but if there is a word of caution for first-time buyers, it is that that they do not pay an inflated price in a bullish market for a property that, as a first home, they may themselves be looking to sell again in three or four years’ time. But for sellers, this is a perfect time as you will be feeding demand.”

DUNDEE LEADS SCOTLAND IN CARD TECHNOLOGY

According to a newly published report, the NEC stands at the forefront of over 115 million transactions per year for a variety of different services, such as bus travel, community memberships, and electronic payments in school cafeterias. 

Managed by a little-known Dundee team, this national programme is used for an incredible amount of concessionary travel, with over 1.4 million people taking advantage of NEC benefits. In addition, of these 1.4 million, over 600,000 of them are young people who have been issued a Young Scot card. 

This card is proving to be an amazing time and money saver, gifting the holder with eligibility for things like discounts, reward points, and PASS (proof of age scheme).

This card also helps locally in Dundee, driving forward a well-thought-out digital strategy conceived by the council to benefit areas such as lifelong learning, young people, transport, health, culture, and finance. 

On Monday March 8th, the city council held a meeting regarding contracts for a new supply of  the Customer Management System and Card and Bureau Services for the NEC scheme, which was met with overwhelming approval by the council’s policy and resources committee.

The Council’s own John Alexander commented: “At a time when the use of contactless cards has soared because of the pandemic, this report illustrates how Dundee City Council innovation has helped to develop a key method to deliver public services for people.

“Uses of the NEC and its popularity have grown over the last 15 years and I am pleased our city and team have been at the centre of these developments.

“This is about how technology can be used to help in people’s lives, to make massive projects like concessionary travel easy to use and to deliver.

“It is a great tribute to the forward-looking attitudes in our council that we continue to manage this successful national programme.”

This National Entitlement Card will continue to be funded by the Scottish Government to support effortless, quality access to public services for the entire 32 local councils currently in place. Additionally, the funds for this card will be administered by the Improvement Service, who has confirmed an extension of the current service agreement they hold between themselves and the Dundee City Council. 

YOUNG PEOPLE MORE INCLINED TO INVEST POST-COVID

The younger generation is more inclined to invest in a post-COVID world according to new research.
According to the research results from OneFamily, a financial services provider, most young people especially between the ages of 18-30 are more inclined now to save more now than they would have one year ago. This survey showed that this was the opinion of 56% of people in that age bracket. In the face of the pandemic, more of these people have become more financially aware. Another percentage 38% according to the same research opined that they would be more inclined to put in money in financial assets like stocks and share-based investments.
This financial cautiousness of most young people stemmed from the realization that they were more likely to be laid off work, given a temporary leave of job or have had to look for a second job in the last twelve months compared to any other age-based demographic.
In the past year, young people below the age of 30 were able to add £1,480 to their savings on average. Not everyone in that age range saved as about 9% were shown to have not saved in the past year while about 13% were shown to have not saved up to £1,480.
The reason for the plan to save is centered around certain needs such as buying a home, saving for education and saving for a wedding. Where 13% are doing so for a home deposit, 11% are saving for a wedding and 16% have education as their reason.
“It’s been a tough time for all of us, so it’s understandable that the generation that’s been hit hardest is now more cautious about spending and are determined to build their savings”, opined Paul Bridgwater, head of investments, OneFamily
He goes further to say that taking precaution against future occurrences such as pandemic, recessions and employment is normal for the under 30 age bracket especially in the face of so much unpredictability.
People under the age of 30 have also prioritized the safety and future of the ecosystem and they show this by not using their money to fund companies that are doing damage to the environment. They make this stand even with the pressure building up.
According to Bridgewater, most young people became more inclined to save for a home after living with their parents or in a rented space that they could not make a permanent residence in the past 12 months. The consideration of using the 25% government bonus on a climate friendly Lifetime ISA might help to boost their savings pot whilst also appealing to their environmental ideals.
He goes further to say, “Meanwhile for those not looking to save specifically for property or retirement, a climate friendly stocks and shares ISA could help them to build their savings nest-egg at a time when interest rates are at a historically low level”

 

SHOULD I CHANGE JOBS DURING A GLOBAL PANDEMIC?

The answer to this question is a definitive yes! this pandemic has brought some amazing opportunities for everyone, it has opportunities for you to progress in your career and achieve the goals you intended to achieve.

There are four things you need to consider when you decide to have a career change, we will talk about each of them below.

The financial strength of the organization you want to join

This is one of the first things you do before joining any organization you check the organization's financials. especially their financial position before the covid-19 pandemic era. check out the companies' accounts online, company checks, etc. Anything you can find on the company’s financials.

Check out if the company is investing or cutting costs? All you are trying to do is to know if the company is financially stable or not. The goal is to know if the company financials are good enough to ride out a recession.

It is not limited to your research alone, even during the interview, ask your future employer questions to know how the recent events have affected the company's financial position and their plans.

Will the series of lockdowns affect the correct functioning of the company?

It is no news that the series of lockdowns had bad effects on different sectors of the economy, these sectors include hospitality, leisure, travel, and property. The lockdown prevents people from participating in activities that would boost these sectors.

But sectors like technology, financial services, and online retailing have had a little negative impact. The lockdown has given them a lot more positive impacts as they have a lot more customers now that rely on these sectors for most of their day-to-day activity during and after lockdowns.

You need to be cautious of the sector you want to move to because if it is a sector that is negatively affected by the lockdowns depending on the degree of effect, it would be a bad idea to venture into such sectors.

What kind of role would I be playing in the company? A business-critical role, revenue-generating role, or a luxury to the organization?

The kind of role you play in the organization matter a lot if your role in the organization is critical to the running of the day-to-day activities. Then the company will continually need your skills and experience. This is great as this would make you a valuable asset to the company.

On the order hand, if you are joining the organization in a revenue-generating capacity, you need to be sure your skill sets would be able to carry out such duty without disappointing the organization. You need to consider the pandemic and other external factors that might hinder your performance.

if your role is not business-critical or revenue-generating, and it is not essential to the company's core function then the probability of you being laid off during any recession is very high, as the organization would be trying to cut down costs.

You compare the new opportunity in the new organization and that of your current role in your organization?

Before considering new opportunities, you need to consider your current role and organizations. Ask yourself questions to know your true situation in your current organization.

Are you happy with your current role? Are there opportunities to progress beyond my current role in the organizations? Does my current organization value me? etc.

If your answers to this question are, Yes! Then you need to be sure if you are making the right choice to leave.

But if after answering these questions your answer is No! then you compare and consider the options you have with the one you had in your current organization.

Should I change jobs during a global pandemic?

Yes, provided the opportunity passes the four tests above. Make sure you stay open to opportunities, retain a growth mindset, and make sure the opportunities you select allow you to progress in your chosen career.

OVER 2500 CII CANDIDATES SUFFERED EXAM DISRUPTION

About 2900 candidates took the chartered insurance institute exam this year; it has been decided that they will all get special consideration during the marking of the exam scripts due to the exam delivery issues a lot of them faced.

So what are the issues faced by the students? For starters, the students experienced issues accessing the remote invigilation sessions. Some candidates faced issues in accessing their preferred exam centers. There were other technical issues different students faced when sitting for the exam.

The Chartered Insurance Institute has stated that they are aware of these issues. They understand how this issue would have caused stress and inconvenience for the students.

In a similar scenario in 2019, 491 candidates who faced different issues during their exam sittings were given post-examination mark adjustments.

The Covid-19 crisis did cause some delay in the schedule of the financial planning exams; the exam continued till late November this year. The financial planning exams' main sessions were taken in January, July, and October of this year. This year alone, about 32000 candidates sat for the CII exams, and the pass rate for 2020 will be published in the first quarter of next year.

Due to the need for social distancing caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, only 30% of the exam taken from the beginning of this year to late November had remote invigilation.

70% of the multiple-choice exams were taken with remote invigilation from mid-august to late November.

During an Interview with money marketing, the Chartered insurance institute chief customer officer, Gill white, said that session-based candidates who had issues during their exams were contacted to talk about their problems. Some were offered free resits.

She also said the CII has and will continue reviewing any multiple-choice question candidate who had issues sitting for the exam and has contacted them.

All these cases are treated differently, and free resits are only offered to appropriate cases. The CII noted that pass rates vary from unit to unit, but most of the results for July and October beat the average expectations of the body.

Talking to the money marketing, about the remote invigilation process this year. Gill White said the remote invigilation has helped to promote the relationship between CII candidates and CII members. It has allowed the smooth running of the exam proceedings allowing insurance and personal finance professionals to continue their studies by allowing the smooth process of obtaining qualifications during the covid-19 pandemic.

She adds that the remote invigilation system is still far from perfect. This year CII conducted on-screen invigilation using the new CII assessment center and remote invigilation provider PSI. However, they have gotten mixed feedback on the system. CII continues to try to better the system for better delivery in future examinations.

CII is working to resolve all the issues encountered since the march exam session when the PSI system was launched. To make the PSI performance better in the near future.

CII is planning additional session-based exams in the first quarter of 2021. They are improving the overall user experience, improving the communications systems, and the booking process.

The 2021 exams will have limited physical centers and would also support remote invigilation. Gill white ended by saying the CII continues to work to better user experience for the multiple-choice exams.

RPI TO BE REFORMED IN 2030

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) will be reformed and aligned with the housing cost-based version of the Consumer Prices Index, known as CPIH, by 2030, the Treasury has confirmed.

As part of the Comprehensive Spending Review today (25 November), the government announced that the methods and data sources of CPIH would be brought into RPI in February 2030, after the date of the maturity of the final specific index-linked gilt that year.

While the Treasury had consulted on making this change as early as 2025, in the response published today chancellor Rishi Sunak said he would withhold the consent necessary before 2030 in order to minimise the impact on the holders of index-linked gilts.

Nevertheless, the government has refused to offer compensation to index-linked gilt holders, noting that there would be no change to the contractual terms with RPI still being used to determine the index ratio.

As the consultation closed to responses in August, it was warned that investors could face a fall in asset values of up to £130bn depending on the breadth and pace of the reform.

The Pensions Policy Institute predicted a £60bn hit to scheme investments of a 2030 implementation date, while the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association estimated a 17% drop in income for a man aged 65 this year if the change was made in 2025.

'Major blow'

Hymans Robertson partner Matt Davis said the decision was a "major blow for pension schemes and their members", although noted that the impact will vary significantly based on each scheme and its rules.

The government said it "keeps the occupational pensions system under review and will continue to do so", noting the particular impact on some scheme members whose benefits are pegged to RPI.

Davis said this was a "crumb of comfort" and added: "Pension schemes that have followed regulatory and industry best practice by hedging the inflation risk inherit in providing pensions are major holders of index linked gilts and other RPI-linked assets. This change means RPI-linked assets are expected to increase at a lower rate than previously anticipated, which makes them less valuable than before. The schemes that will be worst affected are likely to be those with high levels of inflation hedging and a high proportion of CPI-linked pension increases. In some cases these schemes could see a 10% fall in funding level. The Government has stated it will not offer compensation to holders of index-linked gilts which will have a huge detrimental impact.

"We expected this to have a very significant effect on investors as a whole. We estimate that the impact on the totality of index-linked gilt holders will be a loss in the region of £100bn based on past differences between RPI and CPIH. Given the vast sums of money involved we expect to see continued pressure on the government to review its decision not to compensate those due to lose out."

Insight Investment head of solution design Jos Vermeulen said he was disappointed with the government's decision, believing the approach to be inequitable. He said: "This is expected to reduce the future change in RPI from 2030 onwards by 1% per annum, effectively transferring around £100bn of value from index-linked gilt holders (largely pension funds) to the government.

"This decision has been made despite substantial concerns being raised during the 2020 consultation, from a broad range of market participants. Insight worked to raise awareness of this issue, as although we understand the statistical problems of maintaining RPI as a legacy index, we do not believe that a solution should result in large transfers of wealth.

"Another chapter in the RPI saga has drawn to a close, but with ten years until the decision is implemented, we struggle to believe that this is the final chapter, and we will continue to advocate for an equitable solution."

'Another lottery'

And while the response is in the large part expected, Society of Pension Professionals president James Riley said the variation in scheme impacts would be stark: "The outcome of the consultation is largely as expected bringing RPI in line with CPIH by 2030. This removes one of the many uncertainties hanging over pension schemes currently and, at one level, this certainty is helpful.

"However, it's yet another lottery, alongside others including GMP equalisation, that affects otherwise similar schemes and sponsors differently. Schemes' RPI assets such as index-linked gilts and inflation swaps will be adversely impacted. Will the reduction in the scheme's liabilities be greater? And then of course, there are pension scheme members, many of whom, rightly or wrongly, will receive lower pension increases than they might otherwise have expected."

Mercer partner and chief actuary Charles Cowling said it was important that schemes now sought to understand the impact: "RPI is clearly a flawed measure of inflation and replacing it to ensure future pensions are calculated fairly is the right thing to do. Unfortunately, doing so will inevitably create both winners and losers, though arguably the impact will already have been priced into the market to some extent.

"For companies and trustees it is now crucial that they seek to understand the impact on their schemes so they can explain and communicate this clearly to their members. On the investment side, there is an opportunity to review hedging programmes to make changes that might lessen the impact of the switch."

HOW A COVID VACCINE DISCOVERY CAN AFFECT VARIOUS ASSET CLASSES

The discovery of a covid-19 vaccine should mean good news to the whole world as it means everyone and everyone gets to go back to what was once considered normal. But this return to normalcy is a blessing to some and a curse to others. Surprising right? Who would have thought that such welcomed development would be adverse to some industries and sectors, one of which is the investment asset classes?
Gold, equity, and debt funds are investment classes that may not fare very well in the wake of a normalized world. This is how the investment classes would perform and what you should do in preparation for any eventuality.

GOLD
No asset class can move in a straight line in perpetuity, and the pandemic has hugely supported the price of gold. It is only logical to expect that the price will correct and go back to what it used to be when there is no pandemic.
The price of gold hit its highest on 7th August as the pandemic raged on, but there was a decline when the announcement for the discovery of a newly approved vaccine.

EQUITY
The equity market has experienced lots of ebb and flow during the pandemic. By March it fell from a peak that was recorded in January. There has been a healthy recovery between March and August. With equity, it is expected that it will react positively to an approved vaccine's news but not for long.
The eventuality of a vaccine being released and approved for covid-19 has already factored by the market even though there is no certainty of when it will be released. Investors' advice is that investors stay true to their asset allocation if they must navigate the volatility.

DEBT
The predicted immediate response for debt investments is an increase in bond yields because central banks may not have a need to buy bonds. According to a fund managers, central banks will not quickly hike the interest rates even though they stop buying the bond yields.
It is also expected that some debt products like bank fixed deposits are expected to keep providing low-interest rates even though interest rates are not likely to rise in the near future.
The topmost priority for most governments around the world is to discover a vaccine for the coronavirus in the shortest time possible. The result of an eventual discovery and approval of a vaccine is volatility in a lot of investment asset classes. It is best that to navigate these times; you should employ and heed the advice of experts. This would help you to make sure that you invest in the appropriate products.

 

TIPS FOR SELF-CARE & PROTECTING YOUR MENTAL HEALTH

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, mental health and related issues have been talked about emphatically. All the rules, guidelines, and restrictions that have been stipulated, which also cause anxiety, have so much impact on our lives in ways that we could not fathom. The new working environments and situations have resulted in stress and mental exhaustion.

We all have mental health. Good mental health reflects in our daily lives. Good mental health steers us in the path of purpose and provides clarity in our directions. We even have the energy to actualize the goals that we want to actualize. When we are faced with challenges, we can meet these challenges squarely.

One thing that is always in constant flux is our mental health. It is ever-changing because some times and situations make us feel stressed or feel down. The problem with some of these negative downtimes is that it can metamorphose into mental health issues with visible effects in our day to day lives. These feelings do not just go away all the time. Mental health, just like physical health, has places where and facilities can help you keep yourself fit. Physical fitness has places with equipment, facilities, and specialists to physically help you be in the best form. This is the same with mental health. There are deliberate efforts and steps that we can take to develop and better our mental health and improve our capacity to recover quickly from difficulty. This is why the importance of self-care cannot be overemphasized. It is important to practice self-care even though it can be difficult, especially when dealing with depression, anxiety, and low self-esteem.

Some ways can help one to improve our mental health, and some of them include;

TALKING TO SOMEONE: erroneously, people consider talking to others about their feelings as a sign of weakness. This is untrue, and the opposite is the case as it means you are taking control of your wellbeing. It is advisable to talk to your co-workers or colleagues, supervisor, and friends, or family. You should speak to people that you feel comfortable with.
STAY ACTIVE: This is not limited to rigorous and planned out exercises; instead, it could merely be taking a stroll during your break to improve your self-esteem, help you focus, and aid you in feeling better.
GOOD DIET: Your mental health benefits from healthy eating as much as your physical health.
DRINKING RESPONSIBLY: excessive intake of alcohol can worsen your anxious feeling.
KEEP IN TOUCH: the effects of obesity and smoking can be likened to the impact of loneliness. It is terrible for your health. Relationships are essential in your workspace and anywhere else.
ASK FOR HELP: You are not an island, and life can be overwhelming, so it can be in your benefit to ask for help and assistance when you need it.
TAKE A BREAK: Your mental health can benefit from a change in scenery and pace. Once in a while, move away from your work desk, go to the park, pick up a book, and do things to be happy. Get enough rest and sleep too.
DO WHAT YOU ARE GOOD: AT One way to boost your self-esteem is to do something you are passionate about. Doing something that you know how to do will make you feel good about yourself.

We hope that you are staying safe and well with whatever way you choose to practice self-care.
Charities such as See Me, Scotland, Breathing space, and Samaritans have good digital facilities and resources to help you, and they are just a phone call away if you need help and are struggling.

Martin Crines at Jenson Fisher was the perfect recruitment partner for us when we recruited our new Head of Finance. He quickly got to the heart of what we needed in the role - both in terms of skills and experience and personality and attitude. He worked hard to understand our needs, our direction of travel and what I needed from the working dynamic. As a result he assembled a terrific shortlist and quite rightly predicted the person that we ultimately appointed. That appointment has been very positive with follow up support offered by Martin to both me and the newly appointed employee. I'd happily work with him again.

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